The maritime division of International Line, led by Erika Sáenz, provided a preventive analysis of the main international events currently shaping maritime transport heading into the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting signs of adjustment, new opportunities for importers and exporters, and the importance of proactive logistics management.
1. Moderate slowdown in global trade: The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reduced its forecast for global trade volume growth in 2026 to 0.5%, reflecting a moderate slowdown.
According to Reuters, this context presents a more competitive scenario that demands strategic logistics planning, prioritizing efficiency and flexibility in the management of routes and transport contracts.
2. Adjustment of maritime rates and new opportunities for trade: Over the past few months, a natural adjustment has been observed in international maritime transport rates, bringing them to levels similar to those recorded at the beginning of 2024.
This scenario, influenced by demand stabilization and route normalization, opens a window of opportunity for importers and exporters seeking to optimize logistics costs and secure space at more competitive rates as the year comes to a close.
At International Line, it is recommended to approach this environment with a strategic outlook, favoring stable contracts, early planning, and specialized advisory services that allow balancing costs, times, and service levels in a still dynamic global market.
3. Increase in operating costs and extended routes: Higher fuel oil consumption has impacted logistics costs, mainly due to vessel diversions avoiding conflict zones such as the Red Sea or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Added to this is the growth of the so-called “shadow fleet,” a group of older ships operating outside major regulations, which has led to higher operating costs, increased insurance premiums, and longer transit times.
In this context, early shipment planning becomes key to mitigating impacts on costs and timelines.
4. Tariff changes in the European Union: The European Union announced a reduction in steel import quotas and an increase in tariffs of up to 50% for volumes exceeding those quotas.
This measure could affect exports of raw materials and industrial supplies, so companies are advised to monitor its impact on costs and production times, diversify sources, and anticipate shipments whenever possible.
5. Vulnerability in key maritime corridors: Geopolitical tensions in strategic areas such as the Suez Canal and the Red Sea continue to affect the stability of international maritime trade.
Route diversions have led to increased transit times, logistics costs, and risk of delays, reinforcing the need for reliable logistics partners and constant route monitoring.
The global scenario is in constant evolution, and this demands timely information, planning, and strategic partnerships.
