“The fourth quarter will not be as positive as expected for airlines and cargo owners, but in perspective, 2025 will not be a bad year. It will be slightly lower than previous ones, yet it maintains stability and opportunities for those who manage to anticipate,” said Andrea Pérez, Air Freight Commercial Lead at International Line.
The Air Freight Department of International Line, led by Andrea Pérez, Air Freight Commercial Lead, provided an informative and preventive analysis of air market trends, highlighting that the sector is heading toward moderate growth by the end of the year.
In recent months, air freight has benefited from the advance of shipments and from the modal shift from maritime to air transport, driven by the need to anticipate tariffs imposed by the United States.
These measures have altered the traditional patterns of the high season, creating idle capacity in North America, while volumes in Europe have remained more stable. On the North Atlantic route, a reduction of around 20% in capacity is projected during October, coinciding with the start of the airlines’ winter schedule, which could help stabilize rates.
In contrast, the Asia–Europe corridor shows greater dynamism: spot rates from Northeast and Southeast Asia increased by 4% month-over-month in September, driven by the high season. Moreover, Europe has consolidated itself as a key destination for Chinese e-commerce, with a year-on-year growth of 58% in cross-border sales during 2025.
Toward the end of the year, indicators suggest that the slowdown observed in September will continue, although projections point to 2025 closing with a global increase of 3% to 4% in air cargo demand.
“The fourth quarter will not be as positive as expected for airlines and cargo owners, but in perspective, 2025 will not be a bad year. It will be slightly lower than previous ones, yet it maintains stability and opportunities for those who manage to anticipate,” concluded Andrea Pérez, Air Freight Commercial Lead at International Line.
