Commercial Alert: Geopolitical Scenario and Recommendation for Shipment Anticipation

  • 6 de April de 2026

The current scenario of tension in the Strait of Hormuz continues to generate uncertainty in global logistics markets, without clear visibility regarding its duration or potential escalation. While in transpacific traffic —particularly from China to the U.S. West Coast, Mexico, Central America, and LATAM— increases have been limited mainly to fuel adjustments, on other routes such as the Mediterranean and areas near the conflict, a sustained application of additional surcharges is already being observed, including War Risk Surcharge and GRI, among others.

To date, additionally, no significant imbalance is observed in container stocks. However, should the conflict persist or escalate, it is reasonable to anticipate that this condition could be affected, considering that several routes in the Mediterranean could modify their itineraries, generating equipment imbalances and possible operational restrictions.

This type of scenario can evolve rapidly and transfer these additional costs to other routes relevant to Chile. There is, therefore, a high risk of additional tariff increases in the short term, as well as adjustments in logistics conditions.

In this context, the recommendation is:

Anticipate shipment closings and secure current rates while present conditions remain in place.

Avoid exposure to future increases arising from additional surcharges or market adjustments.

Coordinate space and equipment in advance, given possible restrictions or imbalances.